Public Warning and The Science Behind EM

Rescuers at the L’AQUILA, Italy earthquake.

I was completely shocked to read this article at NBC News about six scientists and a government official in Italy being convicted of manslaughter and causing criminally negligent injury for their failure to predict an earthquake in 2009.  The article doesn’t give a lot of background, including what their statements or warnings may or may not have been.  It does mention that there were several smaller quakes in the months preceding a devastating 6.3 magnitude earthquake that killed over 300 people.  It goes on to elude that the scientists (seismologists, presumably) perhaps didn’t give these smaller quakes much consideration as possible precursors to a larger earthquake.

I’m not a geologist, nor do I play one on TV, but we all know that we can’t predict earthquakes with any measure of reliability.  Here in the northeast there are plenty of small quakes, which are generally no cause for alarm.  Italy, however, is earthquake prone.  One would think that people would have in their minds that the possibility of a sizeable earthquake is always present, especially after a series of smaller earthquakes.  Unless these scientists really downplayed that possibility (which would be ludicrous in that region of the world), I just don’t see how they can be held responsible.  Some disasters we can predict, others – such as earthquakes, we just can’t.  This is a dangerous precedent that I truly hope doesn’t catch on.  There are scientists in a variety of fields that are strong partners with emergency management.  While we know that the sciences (or the human interpretation of them) are often times imperfect, we go with the best information available to drive the planning and decisions we make.  Admittedly, it’s a gamble to a degree – a darn dangerous gamble – but I challenge anyone to find a better way.  If we cry wolf every time the possibility of something occurs, the population will become complacent and ignore our warnings.  We must strive for better science, achieve better balance, and maintain common sense.

Red Cross ReadyRating Program

I recently sat through a webinar on the Red Cross ReadyRating Program.  Admittedly, I’ve perused their site before, and even recommended their services – which I certainly understood – but I never realized how in-depth their program goes.  The webinar was hosted by Agility Recovery, who regularly puts on brief and informative programs of good quality. 

The ReadyRating program is a web-based service, absolutely free of charge, that provides businesses, organizations, and schools with a free disaster readiness assessment tool.  The tool seems to be useful to entities large and small, even allowing larger businesses or organizations with multiple locations to conduct an assessment for each location folded in under the same account.  The user answers questions and the tool quantifies the entity’s measure of preparedness and provides customized reports showing various data in a variety of formats (charts, report card, etc).  ReadyRating apparently even grades the amount of community participation the entity has relative to preparedness efforts (see my previous post re: Public-Private Partnerships).  The tool also enables creation of a customized emergency response plan – something I’m a little cautious of (generally speaking, I’m not in favor of ‘fill in the blank’ planning) – but I’ve not actually used the tool, so I can’t speak from direct experience on it.

ReadyRating refers to their users as ‘members’ – and they have a fairly impressive membership, both in numbers (2,689 businesses and organizations, 570 schools) as well as in names (they list the likes of Anheuser Busch, Grainger, Monsanto, and others).  Feedback from members is very favorable, and the tool provides for the ability to do re-assessments and showing progress to the user – that’s great encouragement to them!  They even show comparisons with other members (anonymously) (comparisons are provided nationally, state-wide, number of employees, and by industry).

ReadyRating is quite an impressive tool – and it’s free!  I have it listed on the links page of my company’s website – Emergency Preparedness Solutions, LLC along with other resources.  Check it out!

Public-Private Partnerships: A Necessity in Emergency Management

Over the last several years there have been volumes of articles written on the value of public-private partnerships in Emergency Management.  So why is it still like pulling teeth?  Yes, we have great private sector partners in EM – the likes of WalMart, UPS, Grainger, and others.  The value of having these partnerships has certainly been demonstrated through the years, in both local disasters and national-level disasters.  Even in preparedness, these partnerships help carry our message to the masses.  FEMA promotes a program called PS-Prep, designed to engage private sector preparedness while encouraging their involvement locally in emergency management efforts.

Government simply can’t do it without the private sector.  It’s not because the public sector is lacking, it’s because of the position and resources available to the private sector.  They have more resources and greater flexibility.  Why wouldn’t they want to help?  Their customers and employees live in the area.  It’s a solid decision to invest in the community (or communities) in which your company is located.  It doesn’t always involve a financial commitment – it encourages preparedness for the business itself; it provides an opportunity to engage employees in community efforts (all with the company name being recognized – it’s free marketing!); and perhaps an opportunity to provide products – discounted or free – to relief efforts in the aftermath of a disaster.  Commodities such as building materials, water, and food are in great need in the aftermath of a disaster.  Even trucks and people.  Yes, these things all cost money, but there is a lot of free press and good will that goes along with it.

There are plenty of businesses that contribute after a disaster occurs – certainly they want to help.  They can all have more impact, however, by joining up with local emergency preparedness efforts before a disaster ever occurs.  Joining a community organization, such as a VOAD, or entering into memorandums of understanding with local emergency management agencies prior to a disaster makes a huge impact.  The partnerships made with other businesses, government agencies, and community organizations will also be to their benefit.

Businesses large and small – consider both the preparedness of your company and your community.  There are opportunities to be had with both!

Emergency Preparedness for Persons with Disabilities

My post is in reference to an article in Emergency Management Magazine (found here:http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/Emergency-Planning-Disabled-Uphill-Battle.html).  The author’s article brings up several pertinent points around preparedness planning for persons with disabilities.  This, like darn near everything in emergency management, requires a multi-agency, multi-disciplinary approach.  We also need to be very certain to not lump all persons with disabilities into one category.  There are various levels of function that people may have.  Many people live with disabilities every day and are highly functioning, requiring little or no help.  Others may require daily or constant assistance from family, friends, or other care takers, including medical professionals.  Some folks are dependent upon medications or medical equipment (insulin dependant diabetics, those requiring dialysis, or home oxygen), while some have mobility impairments.  Some may have cognitive disabilities such as autism, Down’s Syndrome, or a traumatic brain injury.  Some persons may have several disabilities which need to be considered.  A community’s planning efforts must incorporate the full spectrum of needs.

Following our emergency planning steps, we can easily pull together the people and information we need.  First, form a planning group.  Emergency management, local health department, and local organizations that advocate for persons with disabilities, such as the Arc, associations for the blind and hearing impaired, diabetes association, MDA, UCP, etc.  These are all important stakeholders as they serve and advocate for our disabled populations on a daily basis.  You should probably know your community’s hazards, but we should analyze how they can impact persons with disabilities.  We have to define what needs exist that we need to address.  We can even consider mitigation measures, such as obtaining strobe light alerting for those with hearing impairments.

Help your community keep its finger on the pulse of the needs of persons with disabilities by forming a special needs registry.  Those utilized now are web-based and help first responders and emergency management identify, plan for, and address the changing needs in the community.  Having current information such as names, addresses, and type and severity of disability are extremely important.  Planning for notification, evacuation, transportation, and sheltering are often times the most challenging.  Expand your planning group when these challenges come up.  Include utility companies (who will prioritize power restoration to those who are dependent for medical reasons), local and regional transportation authorities, and those agencies and resources who will staff special needs shelters.

Remember, most persons with disabilities are not an idol portion of our population.  They are highly functioning and can help, needing only the right accommodations to do so.  Also, be sure to promote special needs preparedness.  FEMA, the American Red Cross, and others have excellent resources for this.  Your local association for the blind and visually impaired can help you obtain materials in large print or braille.  The National Organization on Disability is also a great resource (nod.org).  Don’t leave anyone behind!

Telephonic Alert Systems Not the Only Solution

Recently, Emergency Management Magazine posted an article on failures of telephonic alert notifications (http://www.emergencymgmt.com/disaster/Do-Alert-Notifications-Fail-Expectations.html).  The article certainly exposes some of the limitations of these systems as well as the reasons why these limitations exist.  One significant reason is that these systems typically require cell phone users to subscribe (yep… one more thing we need to ask the public to do in an effort for them to be responsible for their own well-being).  Those of you reading this who are in Emergency Management know that it’s very difficult to motivate the general public to do these types of things.  Yes, subscription can be circumvented by forced cell bursts, whereas public safety pushes messages out to all cell users within the range of a given tower(s).  This, though, by FCC regulation, is only to be done in the event of extreme emergency.

So what do we do?  First, we need to continue marketing these alerting programs.  The Feds have put one together they are hoping to implement nationally, many states have them, some cities have them, college campuses have them, even some businesses have them.  They have a huge value – particularly the ones that are customizable by the end-user and multi-modal (voice, text, e-mail, fax, etc.).  Just an hour and a half ago I received an alert by text and e-mail about a magnitude 2.5 earthquake in Canada on the Quebec-Ontario border.  Likewise, I receive them about local road closures and severe weather.  I market our local alert system as much as possible – I’ve even obtained hundreds of flyers from the state’s emergency management agency on the program so I can distribute them when I have speaking engagements and attend community events.  The technology is wonderful and it will continue evolving – both from the programming side that initiates the alert as well as the ability of our infrastructure to handle mass notifications.

The article, however, seems to not mention the integration of other modes of communication to the public.  This is absolutely vital!  You can never rely on only one mode.  Certainly EAS, pushed through radio and TV, is extremely valuable and effective.  But we also need to consider using sirens and even personnel driving through neighborhoods in vehicles providing information by way of loud-speaker.  There is always a chance that you won’t reach someone, but you have to cover as many modes as practical given the importance of the information that must get out.

Fusion Centers & The Art of Intel

In reference to an MSNBC article titled “Homeland Security Fusion Centers Called Useless“… This was a pretty critical article on the utility and outputs of fusion centers.  Fusion centers have been highly funded by the federal government over the past decade as a means of pulling together local, state, and federal law enforcement officials into one regional facility with the purpose of collecting, sharing, and analyzing intelligence information pertinent to domestic crimes and terrorism.

While the article was critical of the outputs of fusion centers, such as failed leads and off-base reports, there have been successes.  The article eludes to them, but some of those successes are still classified/sensitive information.  Given that, this article may not be fairly representing the progress of fusion centers.  That said, there are still some obvious improvements to be made.

This is not CSI, NCIS, Criminal Minds, or Law and Order.  The collection and analysis of information (law enforcement intelligence, or otherwise) is not often times a straight forward or simple process.  It can not be accomplished within the confines of an hour-long prime time show.  While I’m not an intel analyst, I’ve performed similar work many times over as a Planning Section Chief and Situation Unit Leader working in incident command posts and emergency operations centers for various types of incidents.  Add in a multi-agency response (which nearly every incident of any measure of complexity surely entails), and you’ve got your hands full just figuring what has happened, much less what’s going on right now, and trying to forecast what will likely happen.  One needs to determine exactly what information is needed, where to get it, how to get it, validate it once it’s received, consider how the information should be shared, cross-reference it with other data, and still make sure that it’s all timely, relevant, and accurate.  Intel gets even more complicated, particularly in the ‘cross referencing’ activity I just listed.  The best way I’ve seen this explained is by ‘collecting the dots and connecting the dots’.  A great book for your intel types is “Intelligence Analysis – A Target Centric Approach“.  It should be required reading for all fusion center staff.

Fusion centers are still a fairly new concept – perhaps could even still be considered a fad.  They are a concept that has likely not reached maturity.  They have certainly been tested in real life and by way of prevention exercises.  On a daily basis they must weed through tons of boring and seemingly irrelevant information, identifying one bit here and one bit there that might be relevant.  These folks are further challenged by a multi-agency environment (certainly a strength in the long run, but still presenting challenges of its own) and the necessity to identify patterns within the intel.  No easy task.  They have policies, processes, and procedures.  They have training and exercises.  Clearly, though, we are doing something wrong.  But what?