Every year at this time of year, FEMA delivers the National Preparedness Report. Much like that one relative that is always a horrible gifter around the holidays, the infamous legacy of a long line of NPRs persists, reinforcing the waste of time, effort, and money through lack of value. It truly pains me to be so negative about these documents, but the disappointment of these documents pains me more. The development of the NPR is a great opportunity to provide analysis of meaningful information, yet it is consistently inconsistent in the style and format presented every year, and falls severely short of any potential this document could have. That said, there are always a couple of shining moments that each report has, if only they could embrace those and use them every year! If you would like a summary of the abysmal history of NPRs through the years, you can find my previous posts here.
The 2023 NPR (which is developed from 2022 data) kicks off in a laughable fashion in the Introduction and Executive Summary, which identifies four key findings:
- Increasing Frequency, Severity, and Cost of Disasters
- High Community-Level Risk
- Ongoing Individual and Household Preparedness Gaps
- Lack of Standardized Building Code Adoption
This is followed immediately by three recommendations:
- Target Investments Towards Particular Core Capabilities and Mission Areas
- Reduce All-Hazards Challenges Through Targeted Actions and Increased Coordination
- Address National Gaps to Prepare for Catastrophic Disasters
Following the Introduction and Executive Summary, the report is structured with information on Risks, followed by what they claim are ‘trends’ in Capabilities, Focus Areas of certain Core Capabilities, and a conclusion. Let’s take a quick look at each.
A formatting issue that immediately struck me as I explored the sections was that they carried through numbering of sub sections which began in the Introduction. Seems minor, but it’s awkward and made me think in the first (Risk) section that I had missed something when the first numbered subsection (three pages into the section) started with 4. Overall, the section on Risks provides some good summaries and graphics that emphasize the increasing frequency, severity, and cost of disasters, providing both annual trend information (I like this!) as well as information specific to 2022. Page 10 of the document provides an interest graph derived from national 2022 THIRA/SPR data that lists hazards of concern. The top 5 hazards of concern listed are:
- Cyber Attack
- Pandemic
- Flood
- Active Shooter (can we PLEASE universally adopt the term Active Shooter/Hostile Event??)
- Earthquake
Wanting to see if/how dots were connected, I read ahead a bit on these to see if there were any connections. In the Focus Areas section, Cybersecurity is prominently identified within the discussion on the Public Health, Healthcare, and EMS Capability as a threat to the healthcare sector. While this is true, the Cybersecurity threat permeates every other sector, which is only vaguely alluded to in the discussion on the Long-Term Vulnerability Reduction Capability. The Public Health, Healthcare, and EMS Capability did reinforce Pandemic preparedness needs, though the Active Shooter and Earthquake concerns had virtually no mention in the document beyond the Threat/Hazard discussion.
While I do appreciate the mention of the National Risk Index in this section (it’s a great tool), they miss the opportunity to really contextualize and cross reference threats and hazards of concern.
The section on Capabilities highlighted something I found both interesting and confusing…
In the Response mission area, communities report low levels of grant investment and lower target achievement in Mass Care Services and Logistics and Supply Chain Management. Communities also consider Mass Care Services a high priority capability. These capabilities and three of the four Recovery Core Capabilities fall within these ranges and may warrant increased grant investments.
My commentary: If communities are identifying Mass Care Services to be a high priority, why are they investing lower levels of grant funds into that capability?
The first subsection of the Capabilities section is Individual and Household Preparedness. While clearly an important area of discussion, it’s not a Core Capability, nor does the report associate any Core Capabilities with this topic. The next subsection on Community Preparedness does make some connections to Core Capabilities. It’s in this subsection that the updated chart of Grant Funding by Core Capability is provided. Yet again, the Housing Core Capability is among the loss leaders, with no sign of that ship being steered on the proper course. I find it interesting to note that Supply Chain Integrity and Security, and Economic Recovery are also among the lowest investments, despite some severe lessons learned from COVID-19 in those areas.
Among the leaders in Grant Funding by Core Capability are Planning, Operational Coordination, and Operational Communications. All that money spent, yet those areas continue to be consistently among the highest areas for improvement in after-action reports. I’d love to see an audit detailing more precisely what activities that money is being spent on within these Core Capabilities and what the outcomes of those activities are, as I suspect we are spending a whole lot of money with little resulting value. I’ll also note that this is only 2022 data. Every year I’ve written about the NPR I’ve suggested the need for multi-year analysis so we can actually identify trends, progress, and gaps over time. Single year snapshot-in-time data has such limited value.
The last subsection in the Capabilities Section is National Preparedness. Much of the information in this section is provided in a table on National-Level Capability Gaps and Recommendations. The table is organized by POETE but also includes areas on Capacity and Coordination (I’d suggest that the items contained in these two areas could have been placed within POETE). The introduction to this table states that the table summarizes high-level gaps and recommendations at the national level across all Core Capabilities. While in essence this something I’ve suggested in my commentary on previous year’s reports, this is TOO high level. It’s so high level that it is completely absent of any context or detail to really be meaningful. I’m also left wondering (doubting, really) if future grant funding will target any of these recommendations.
The next section is Focus Areas. This section highlights four specific Core Capabilities:
- Fire Management and Suppression
- Logistics and Supply Chain Management
- Public Health, Healthcare, and EMS
- Long-Term Vulnerability Reduction
While the reason for these four, specifically, to be covered is pretty evident based upon associated risk, threats, hazards, and needed improvements; I’m still left wondering why only these four, especially when significant gaps were identified in so many other Core Capabilities, as well as the lack of progress I noted earlier on other Core Capabilities despite extraordinary investment.
Each of these Core Capabilities is organized by a discussion of associated risk – which included some quality identification of trends, costs, and impacts; capability gaps; and management opportunities. Overall, the content in these areas is fine, but nothing really earthshattering. The Management Opportunities, which are mostly corrective actions, have focus ranging from federal, to SLTT, NGO and Private Sector, and Individuals and Households. Some good ideas are listed, similar to last year’s approach, but as with the previous section, I’m still left wondering if any of these actions will become funded priorities.
I noted in the Conclusion that the report does include an email address for feedback. I don’t think I ever saw this before, but I’ll be sending my collected commentary from this year and previous years to hopefully spur some changes to make the report more valuable than a superficial summary.
© 2023 Timothy Riecker, CEDP
Emergency Preparedness Solutions, LLC®